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Newcastle United vs Everton Prediction & Betting Tips – Premier League Newcastle United vs Everton Prediction & Betting Tips – Premier League
Newcastle vs Everton Goals and Odds Analysis
Newcastle United and Everton both average 1.2 goals scored per game across all competitions, but defensive metrics reveal a clear divergence ahead of Monday, 2 Nov 2026 at 20:00 UTC. Newcastle United concede an average of 1.8 goals per match, compared to Everton’s 1.4 goals conceded per game. This variance in defensive efficiency directly impacts match probability distributions and market valuations for this Premier League fixture.
Newcastle United Defensive Struggles and Form
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | League Cup | Everton | 1-3 | Loss |
| 2026-10-25 | Premier League | Crystal Palace | 2-0 | Win |
| 2026-10-17 | Premier League | Aston Villa | 0-1 | Loss |
| 2026-10-12 | Premier League | Coventry | 1-4 | Loss |
| 2026-09-19 | Premier League | Hull City | 2-1 | Win |
Across their last five matches in all competitions, Newcastle United have recorded two wins and three losses, holding a form of LWLLW. Their most recent outing resulted in a 1-3 home defeat against Everton in the League Cup on 2026-10-29. Conceding 1.8 goals per game highlights ongoing defensive vulnerabilities that undermine their home performance metrics.
Everton Defensive Metrics and Recent Results
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | League Cup | Newcastle | 3-1 | Win |
| 2026-10-24 | Premier League | Arsenal | 0-2 | Loss |
| 2026-10-17 | Premier League | Chelsea | 0-2 | Loss |
| 2026-10-11 | Premier League | Hull City | 2-2 | Draw |
| 2026-09-19 | Premier League | Ipswich | 1-0 | Win |
Everton enter this fixture with recent overall form showing two wins, one draw, and two defeats (WLLDW). Their recent 3-1 away victory over Newcastle United on 2026-10-29 demonstrated an ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities away from home. Yielding 1.4 goals per match gives Everton a tighter defensive baseline relative to their hosts.
Head-to-Head Record Favors Everton
In six recorded head-to-head encounters, Everton lead with three victories, while Newcastle United have secured one win alongside two draws. Everton won the most recent meeting 3-1 in League Cup action on 2026-10-29, following a 3-2 league victory on 2026-02-28. Newcastle United’s sole recent head-to-head win was a 4-1 away result on 2025-11-29.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Premier League | Newcastle vs Everton | 2-3 | Everton |
| 2025-11-29 | Premier League | Everton vs Newcastle | 1-4 | Newcastle |
| 2025-05-25 | Premier League | Newcastle vs Everton | 0-1 | Everton |
| 2024-10-05 | Premier League | Everton vs Newcastle | 0-0 | Draw |
| 2024-04-02 | Premier League | Newcastle vs Everton | 1-1 | Draw |
| 2023-12-07 | Premier League | Everton vs Newcastle | 3-0 | Everton |
Predicted Lineups and Absence Report
Newcastle United – Predicted XI
| Position | Player |
|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | N. Pope |
| Defender | T. Livramento |
| Defender | S. Botman |
| Defender | M. Thiaw |
| Defender | L. Hall |
| Midfielder | Joelinton |
| Midfielder | J. Willock |
| Midfielder | L. Miley |
| Attacker | A. Elanga |
| Attacker | Y. Wissa |
| Midfielder | J. Murphy |
Everton – Predicted XI
| Position | Player |
|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | J. Pickford |
| Midfielder | A. Maitland-Niles |
| Defender | J. O'Brien |
| Defender | M. Keane |
| Defender | V. Mykolenko |
| Midfielder | C. Nørgaard |
| Midfielder | J. Garner |
| Midfielder | K. Dewsbury-Hall |
| Attacker | T. Dibling |
| Attacker | T. Barry |
| Midfielder | Tyrique George |
Team News
Newcastle United absences: No key absences.
Everton absences: No key absences.
Expected Value Assessment and Market Odds
Bookmaker odds place Newcastle United as home favorites at 2.25, reflecting an implied probability of 44.4%. However, our statistical model calculates Newcastle United’s true win probability at only 35%, yielding a negative expected value of -21.3%. Draw odds sit at 3.41 against an estimated 25% model probability (-14.7% expected value). Conversely, Everton are priced at 2.83 (implied probability of 35.3%), whereas our model assesses their win probability at 40%. This divergence generates a +13.2% expected value edge on the away win, establishing Everton as the primary value pick.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Value Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Newcastle United | 2.25 | No value |
| Draw | Draw | 3.41 | No value |
| Match Result | Everton | 2.83 | ★★ Value |
Model Projection and Final Verdict
Statistical indicators favor Everton based on lower goal concession rates and recent head-to-head outcomes. Our model projects a 40% probability for an away win compared to 35% for the home team. The recommended selection is an Away Win for Everton.
| Predicted Score | Newcastle United 1-2 Everton |
| Most Likely Result | Away Win |
| Recommended Bet | Away Win @ 2.83 (EV +13%) |
How This Prediction Was Made
This prediction was prepared by Oliver Grant. The pick combines Oliver’s experience following European football with data gathered for this specific match. Data used: each team’s last five results, head-to-head history, injury and suspension news, pre-match odds, our own outcome probabilities.
Responsible Gambling
18+. This prediction is an opinion based on data, not a guarantee. Betting involves risk – only stake what you can afford to lose and gamble responsibly.
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