Match Preview
The US Open grand stage plays host to a compelling clash of contrasting fortunes as world number one Aryna Sabalenka faces off against world number ninety-two Kamilla Rakhimova. This matchup represents a classic David-versus-Goliath scenario, where Sabalenka seeks to solidify her status as the premier hard-court player in the world, while Rakhimova aims to pull off a monumental upset. With a spot in the deeper rounds of this prestigious tournament on the line, the tactical battle on the court will determine whether Sabalenka can maintain her march toward another title or if Rakhimova can disrupt the established order.
| Prediction Type | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Match Winner | A. Sabalenka to Win | High |
Betting Analysis
From a betting perspective, the odds paint a very clear picture of expectations, with Aryna Sabalenka entering as a massive favorite at 1.08, while Kamilla Rakhimova sits at a distant 8.0. The total games line is set at 18.5, with the under priced at 1.79 and the over at 1.91. This line indicates that the oddsmakers expect a rapid, dominant performance from the world number one. Given Sabalenka’s ultra-aggressive style and devastating serve, she has the unique ability to shorten matches and keep scorelines heavily lopsided. For Rakhimova to push this over the line, she would need to replicate her three-set battle from Washington in 2024, but Sabalenka’s current form suggests she will close this out quickly and efficiently, making the under 18.5 games highly attractive.
A. Sabalenka Results
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | US Open | A. Sabalenka vs P. Iatcenko | 6-1 6-1 | W |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | A. Sabalenka vs C. Osorio | 6-2 6-4 | W |
| 2026-08-20 | Cincinnati | A. Sabalenka vs S. Bejlek | 6.7-7.9 4-6 | L |
| 2026-08-19 | Cincinnati | A. Sabalenka vs Xin. Wang | 6-1 6-3 | W |
| 2026-08-16 | Cincinnati | A. Sabalenka vs T. Gibson | 6-2 7.7-6.2 | W |
Aryna Sabalenka has been nothing short of spectacular on hard courts in 2026, amassing an extraordinary record of 23 wins against just a single defeat, which translates to a phenomenal 95% win rate on this surface. Her recent performances at the US Open underscore this dominance, as she dismantled P. Iatcenko 6-1, 6-1 and comfortably dispatched C. Osorio 6-2, 6-4. Although she suffered a rare setback in Cincinnati against S. Bejlek, Sabalenka’s overall 2026 season has already yielded three singles titles, demonstrating her relentless consistency at the absolute highest level of the sport. Sitting comfortably at the top of the rankings with 8575 points, the Belarusian powerhouse is playing with the supreme confidence that only a world number one possesses.
K. Rakhimova Results
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | K. Rakhimova vs O. Selekhmeteva | 3-6 0-6 | W |
| 2026-08-30 | US Open | K. Rakhimova vs B. Krejcikova | 7.7-6.4 6-2 | W |
| 2026-08-23 | Monterrey | K. Rakhimova vs M. Timofeeva | 3-6 6-3 7.7-6.1 | L |
| 2026-08-22 | Monterrey | K. Rakhimova vs L. Jeanjean | 4-6 6-4 2-6 | W |
| 2026-08-15 | Cincinnati | K. Rakhimova vs M. Sakkari | 2-6 7-5 1-6 | L |
Kamilla Rakhimova enters this contest as the world number ninety-two, holding 852 ranking points. While her overall 2026 hard-court campaign has been modest with a 50% win rate of 2 wins and 2 losses, her recent run at the US Open has provided a welcome boost. Rakhimova secured a confidence-building victory over former Major champion B. Krejcikova with a 7.7-6.4, 6-2 scoreline, followed by a victory against O. Selekhmeteva. Despite a challenging 2025 season where she struggled on hard courts with a 17-21 record, Rakhimova’s current 60% win rate over her last matches shows she is fighting hard to regain the form that saw her win a title last year. However, stepping up to face the top player in the world will test her physical and mental endurance to its absolute limits.
Head-to-Head
| Date | Competition | Matchup | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-25 | French Open | A. Sabalenka vs K. Rakhimova | 6-1 6-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 |
| 2024-08-01 | WTA Washington | A. Sabalenka vs K. Rakhimova | 7-5 4-6 6-4 0-0 0-0 |
| 2023-06-02 | WTA French Open | K. Rakhimova vs A. Sabalenka | 2-6 2-6 |
The head-to-head history heavily favors Aryna Sabalenka, who leads the rivalry with a perfect 3-0 record. The most recent encounter at the 2025 French Open was a masterclass from the Belarusian, who blew Kamilla Rakhimova off the court in a devastating 6-1, 6-0 victory. While Rakhimova managed to push Sabalenka to three sets at WTA Washington in 2024, their other Grand Slam meeting at the 2023 French Open also ended in a comfortable 6-2, 6-2 win for Sabalenka. This history shows that when Sabalenka is dialed in, Rakhimova struggles to find answers for her sheer power, particularly in Grand Slam environments where the physical demands are amplified.
Key Factors
- Aryna Sabalenka holds a dominant 95% win rate on hard courts in 2026, with a 23-1 record compared to Kamilla Rakhimova’s 2-2 hard-court record.
- The head-to-head record stands at 3-0 in favor of Sabalenka, including a dominant 6-1, 6-0 victory in their last meeting.
- Sabalenka’s overwhelming power and elite serving are highly suited to the US Open hard courts, allowing her to control the baseline.
- The total games line of 18.5 suggests a rapid match, which aligns with Sabalenka’s recent straight-sets victories of 6-1, 6-1 and 6-2, 6-4.
Final Verdict
Based on the overwhelming statistical disparity and recent form on hard courts, Aryna Sabalenka is poised to claim a swift victory. Sabalenka’s flawless 3-0 head-to-head record against Kamilla Rakhimova, combined with her stunning 23-1 record on hard courts this season, leaves no room for an upset. Rakhimova has struggled to cope with Sabalenka’s high-octane groundstrokes in their previous matches, and the fast courts of the US Open will only amplify Sabalenka’s serve and return advantages. Expect Sabalenka to impose her will from the opening game, breaking Rakhimova early in both sets to secure a commanding straight-sets victory that keeps the total games under the 18.5 line. Aryna Sabalenka will win this match comfortably.
This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.
Tennis Sport Expert
