The 2026 US Open is already delivering shocks. Novak Djokovic suffered his first ever first round exit at Flushing Meadows on Sunday, falling in five sets to Mariano Navone. Carlos Alcaraz made his return from a wrist injury with a straight sets win over Safiullin. On the women’s side, Madison Keys steps back on Ashe looking for redemption after last year’s shock first round loss, this time as the reigning Australian Open champion. Daria Kasatkina also enters a new chapter, playing her first US Open as an official Australian citizen after switching allegiance from Russia earlier this year.

Here are three first round matches to watch on Tuesday, with our picks and odds.

🎾 Daria Kasatkina vs Paula Badosa – full analysis
Prediction: Badosa to win, odds 1.72

The betting markets position P. Badosa as the favorite at odds of 1.72, while D. Kasatkina enters as the underdog at 2.1. The total games line is set at 21.5, with the under priced at 1.83 and the over at 1.87. This line suggests that the oddsmakers expect a relatively efficient encounter. Given Badosa’s superior hard-court metrics and aggressive baseline play, she will dictate the tempo, which points toward a more direct and shorter match. The value lies in backing a decisive outcome, as Badosa’s offensive style will prevent Kasatkina from dragging the sets into long, defensive physical battles.

🎾 Darja Vidmanova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro – full analysis
Prediction: Vidmanova to win, odds 1.90

The betting markets reflect a highly competitive affair on paper, with bookmakers opening both D. Vidmanova and J. Bouzas Maneiro at identical odds of 1.9. However, the true value lies with Vidmanova when considering her exceptional 80% recent win rate compared to Bouzas Maneiro’s lackluster 40%. The total games line is established at 21.5, with the Under priced at 1.83 and the Over at 1.87. This line indicates that while oddsmakers anticipate a close battle, Vidmanova’s superior hard-court consistency will steer this encounter toward a decisive outcome, making the under on games an attractive proposition as she asserts her dominance.

🎾 Madison Keys vs Alina Korneeva – full analysis
Prediction: Keys to win, odds 1.36

From a betting perspective, the market heavily favors Madison Keys with odds sitting at 1.36, reflecting her established pedigree and historical success on this surface. Alina Korneeva is positioned as a significant underdog at 3.20, representing a high-risk, high-reward option for value-seeking punters. The total games line is set at 20.5 games, a line that suggests bookmakers anticipate a competitive but relatively controlled match. Given Madison Keys’ capability to dictate play with her massive serve and heavy groundstrokes, a fast-paced encounter is highly anticipated. If Keys establishes her rhythm early, she can easily keep the total under this line; however, Korneeva’s recent 80% win rate across her last matches shows she possesses the grit to push sets deep.