Today’s qualifying card is loaded with contrasting storylines. On one end sits Bernard Tomic, a player who was questioning his own retirement just weeks before turning his season around. On the other sits Kei Nishikori, closing out his career with one final run through the tournament that once defined his best moment on tour. Between those two extremes are three matches where the numbers on the board tell a story of their own, and here’s a closer look at what the recent form actually says about how each one might go.

Bernard Tomic vs Lloyd Harris

This is the most compelling storyline on the entire card. Tomic, a former world No. 17, was openly questioning whether 2026 would be his final season just weeks ago. Since then he won the Lincoln Challenger in July, his first title in eight years, and followed it up with a run to the Los Cabos quarterfinals, beating Karen Khachanov along the way. At last year’s US Open, Tomic actually won his qualifying opener before falling in the second round to Henrique Rocha 7-6(4), 6-2, so this is already familiar territory for him.

Prediction: The betting market has Tomic as a heavy favorite (1.2 odds), and the recent form supports it. A player riding this kind of momentum, with real tour-level wins in the last month, should be too much for Harris today.

Sebastian Ofner vs Kei Nishikori

The closest match on the board by the numbers (1.82 vs 1.84), but the real story here is bigger than the odds. Nishikori has announced this will be his final US Open before retiring at the end of the 2026 season, and he’s here on a wild card into qualifying after a career that took him to the 2014 US Open final and a career-high of world No. 4. His ranking has since fallen into the high 400s to 700s range depending on the source, a reflection of just how sparse his match play has been in recent seasons.

Prediction: Name recognition aside, the gap in recent match play favors Ofner here. Nishikori’s class is real, and there will be plenty of emotion around this being one of his last competitive matches at this tournament, but qualifying rounds are usually decided by who’s actually been competing at a high frequency, and that currently points to Ofner.

Arthur Gea vs Sumit Nagal

Gea enters this one on a genuine high. He reached his first ATP Tour final in Los Cabos just weeks ago and cracked the top 100 as a result, form that explains why he’s the No. 1 seed in this qualifying draw. Nagal’s path here is a story in itself: he only made it into the draw after Jack Draper withdrew from the tournament, and this marks his first Grand Slam appearance since Wimbledon 2025 qualifying, having missed four consecutive majors since then. He arrives with some momentum of his own, though, after winning the Targu Mures Challenger in Romania in late June.

Prediction: The odds (1.14 vs 4.6) reflect the gap accurately. Gea’s current form is significantly stronger, and this looks like one of the safer picks on the board, though Nagal’s recent title means he shouldn’t be entirely written off.

Zdenek Kolar vs Borna Gojo

Both players have similar career arcs, former top-120 players trying to work their way back after ranking drops. Kolar reached a career-high of No. 111 in 2022 and is now around No. 182-197. Gojo peaked at No. 72 in 2023 and has since slid outside the top 280, though his career-best Grand Slam result, a fourth-round run at the 2023 US Open, shows he has the game to go deep at this event when things click. He also won his first-round qualifying match at last year’s US Open before being eliminated.

Prediction: Despite Gojo carrying a higher career-high ranking and a proven ceiling at this exact tournament, Kolar’s more recent form lines up better with the market’s clear preference for him (1.2 odds). Worth watching for an upset if Gojo can find his 2023 level again, but the form currently favors Kolar.

Clement Chidekh vs Federico Coria

The most lopsided odds on the entire sheet (1.06 vs 6.7), which is unusual for two players without a massive gap in name recognition. Chidekh’s qualifying campaign last year ended quickly, a first-round loss to Jan-Lennard Struff, so today’s heavy favorite tag suggests either a significant form swing in his favor or a similarly rough current stretch for Coria.

Prediction: With odds this decisive, this looks like one of the safest favorites on the board today. Worth watching simply to see whether the market’s confidence is justified in straight sets or whether Coria can make it competitive.