Matchday 3 results
Tuesday 20 October:
- PSG 4-2 Barcelona
- Liverpool 4-3 Villarreal
- Manchester City 5-1 AEK Athens
- Napoli 4-3 Bodø/Glimt
- Roma 4-0 Slovan Bratislava
- Sabah 1-2 Borussia Dortmund
- Fenerbahçe 2-2 Slavia Prague
- Stuttgart 1-1 Atlético Madrid
- Porto 0-1 PSV
Wednesday 21 October:
- Real Madrid 4-1 RB Leipzig
- Como 4-1 Manchester United
- Aston Villa 3-1 Viking
- Bayern Munich 2-2 Arsenal
- Lille 2-4 Galatasaray
- Club Brugge 3-0 Lens
- Sporting CP 2-3 LASK
- Inter 1-0 Shakhtar Donetsk
- Real Betis 1-0 Feyenoord
What stood out on matchday 3
PSG have scored 14 goals in three league-phase games (6-1, 4-2, 4-2), and the win over Barcelona was Barcelona’s first Champions League defeat of the season.
Liverpool came back from 2-0 down at Anfield to beat Villarreal 4-3 and keep their nine points. Manchester City answered their loss to PSG with a 5-1 win over AEK, with Phil Foden scoring a hat-trick.
Bayern drew 2-2 with Arsenal at home, their second draw of the phase after a 3-3 at Viking. Both draws had goals at both ends. Manchester United lost 4-1 at Como and sit 20th on 3 points, level with Inter and Villarreal.
The goals trend
Across the 18 games, 14 had more than 2.5 goals (78%) and 13 had both teams scoring (72%). That is an average of 4.1 goals per game, which is unusually open. One round is a small sample, so treat it as a reason to look, not a rule. Bookmakers adjust quickly, and a popular market often has a short price.
Champions League table after matchday 3
The top eight go straight to the round of 16. Places 9 to 24 play off, and 25th downwards are out. PSG, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Real Madrid and Real Betis lead on 9 points, followed by Stuttgart and Arsenal on 7.
Barcelona hold eighth place on 6 points. Como, Manchester City, Club Brugge, Sporting and Dortmund are also on 6, so one result can move a team across the line between direct qualification and the play-offs.
Champions League matchday 4 predictions (3 and 4 November)
Matchday 4 has 18 games. SportRadar has published win probabilities for 10 of them so far, shown below as home, draw and away. Kick-offs are in CET.
| Kick-off | Match | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov, 18:45 | Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP | 25.0% | 24.6% | 50.4% |
| Tue 3 Nov, 18:45 | Galatasaray vs Stuttgart | 41.8% | 24.6% | 33.6% |
| Tue 3 Nov, 21:00 | Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich | 28.8% | 24.1% | 47.1% |
| Tue 3 Nov, 21:00 | Barcelona vs Aston Villa | 77.2% | 13.0% | 9.8% |
| Tue 3 Nov, 21:00 | Feyenoord vs Inter | 20.4% | 22.6% | 57.0% |
| Tue 3 Nov, 21:00 | Bodø/Glimt vs Lille | 46.6% | 24.9% | 28.5% |
| Tue 3 Nov, 21:00 | LASK vs Slovan Bratislava | 66.0% | 19.1% | 14.9% |
| Tue 3 Nov, 21:00 | Manchester United vs Roma | 48.4% | 24.8% | 26.8% |
| Tue 3 Nov, 21:00 | Villarreal vs PSG | 20.4% | 20.5% | 59.1% |
| Wed 4 Nov, 18:45 | AEK Athens vs Real Madrid | 12.0% | 15.2% | 72.8% |
Barcelona vs Aston Villa (Tuesday 3 November, 21:00). Barcelona are at 77.2%, the biggest home favourite on the list, after losing at PSG. Villa arrive with three wins from three and a 3-1 win over Viking, but the model gives them only 9.8%. A short price on Barcelona says the market expects a reaction.
Atlético vs Bayern (Tuesday 3 November, 21:00). Bayern are at 47.1%, Atlético 28.8%. Bayern have drawn their last two European games, 3-3 and 2-2, and conceded in both. Atlético drew 1-1 at Stuttgart. Both teams to score is the market to look at here, though it will not be cheap.
Manchester United vs Roma (Tuesday 3 November, 21:00). United are slight favourites at home with 48.4%, despite sitting 20th after the 4-1 loss at Como. Roma beat Slovan Bratislava 4-0 and are on 4 points.
Villarreal vs PSG (Tuesday 3 November, 21:00). PSG are at 59.1% and have scored 14 goals in three games. Villarreal conceded four at Liverpool even after leading 2-0.
AEK vs Real Madrid (Wednesday 4 November, 18:45). Real Madrid are at 72.8% after a 4-1 win over Leipzig. AEK conceded five at Manchester City on matchday 3.
How to read these probabilities
A probability tells you how often a result should happen over many games, not what will happen in one. If a bookmaker’s price implies a higher chance than the number above, there is no edge. If it implies a lower one, the price may be worth a look, though a model is not a guarantee.
Draw no bet returns your stake if the game ends level, which suits matches like Atlético vs Bayern where the draw is a real possibility. Double chance covers two of the three results, but the price drops. A very short price, such as 1.20, implies more than 83% and pays little for the risk.
What’s next
Matchday 4 is on Tuesday 3 and Wednesday 4 November. We will publish a full preview on Sunday 1 November, with confirmed fixtures and updated probabilities for all 18 games.
FAQ
Who is top of the Champions League table?
PSG lead on the table order. They have 9 points, level with Aston Villa, Liverpool, Real Madrid and Real Betis.
How many teams go straight to the round of 16?
The top eight in the league phase. Teams in 9th to 24th place play off, and the rest are out.
What was the score in PSG vs Barcelona?
PSG won 4-2 at the Parc des Princes on Tuesday 20 October.
When is Champions League matchday 4?
Tuesday 3 and Wednesday 4 November 2026.
How many goals were scored on matchday 3?
74 goals in 18 games, an average of 4.1 per game.
18+. Gambling involves risk and can be addictive. Never stake more than you can afford to lose. Probabilities are from a model and can change before kick-off. This is analysis, not a promise of any result.
Football Expert
