The 2026/27 UEFA Nations League league phase is underway, and with it comes one of the tournament’s most overlooked storylines: the race to finish as outright top scorer across the whole competition, league phase, play-offs and the finals combined. With genuine A-list talent spread across all four divisions, this year’s race looks wide open.

Last Season’s Race: A Reminder That Anyone Can Win It

Before looking ahead, it’s worth remembering how unpredictable this race can be.

• 1st: Viktor Gyökeres (Sweden) – 9 goals, playing in League C rather than the top flight
• 2nd: Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) – 8 goals, including the winner in the final
• Joint 3rd: Erling Haaland (Norway) and Georges Mikautadze (Georgia) – 7 goals each

The lesson from that race is simple: the golden boot doesn’t always go to whoever plays on the biggest stage. It goes to whoever finds the net most often, wherever they happen to be playing. Gyökeres won it from League C. Mikautadze got within one goal of the podium almost entirely off the back of a single four-goal outburst in a play-off tie. Form and opportunity matter more than pedigree.

The Established Contenders

Erling Haaland

Haaland enters this edition in a stronger position than last time. Norway have been promoted to League A after topping League B last season, where Haaland finished as that division’s top scorer with seven goals. Now he gets to test himself against elite opposition, Netherlands, Portugal and Denmark await in the group phase, while carrying the same relentless scoring record that made him League B’s most feared forward.

Cristiano Ronaldo

Ronaldo is defending more than just a trophy. Portugal are the reigning Nations League champions, and Ronaldo finished just one goal shy of last season’s golden boot despite being forced off injured in the final itself. At an age where most players have slowed down, he’s shown no sign of it on the international stage, and Portugal’s route through the group gives him regular chances to keep adding to his tally.

Viktor Gyökeres

Gyökeres won the golden boot outright last season. Sweden’s promotion to League B this time means a step up in opposition quality, but it also means a longer potential run if Sweden can progress through play-offs toward the finals, which is exactly the path that built his tally last time around.

The Rising Threat: France’s New Generation

One name worth watching closely this edition is Michael Olise. With Zinedine Zidane now in charge of France, and a front line that includes Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé and Désiré Doué alongside him, Olise is part of a genuinely stacked attacking group entering a new era for Les Bleus.

A front line with that much individual quality, all competing for goals and minutes under a new manager, is exactly the kind of environment that can produce a surprise name at the top of the scoring charts, the way Mikautadze did last season. If France go deep into the knockout rounds under Zidane, who will be looking to make an early statement in the role, Olise is well placed to be part of that story.

Who’s the Smart Pick?

If you’re looking for the safest bet, Ronaldo and Haaland are the obvious two, proven scorers on the biggest stage, both carrying real momentum into this edition. But if last season taught us anything, it’s that the golden boot often comes from somewhere less expected. A deep run for Sweden, Georgia, or a breakout for one of France’s new generation could just as easily decide this race.