Qualifying at the US Open rarely gets the spotlight it deserves. While the tennis world waits for Thursday’s main draw ceremony, 128 men are already fighting for one of just 16 direct spots into Flushing Meadows. Today’s order of play is loaded with recognizable names carrying heavy favorite tags into their openers, a sign of just how much quality sits outside the direct entry cutoff this year.

Jacob Fearnley: The Heaviest Favorite on the Board

Fearnley opens against Roberto Carballes Baena at 5:00 PM ET as one of the biggest favorites in the entire qualifying draw. The British No. 2 arrives fresh off a Challenger title in Newport, and he already has a win over today’s opponent, having beaten the Spaniard 6-1, 7-5 at last year’s Barcelona Open.

Current form: Ranked No. 123, down from a career-high of No. 49 reached in June 2025, but the Newport title suggests his game is trending in the right direction at the right time. His track record at Grand Slams is genuine, with third-round showings at both the 2025 Australian Open and French Open.

Coleman Wong: Backed to Build on History

Wong takes on Elmer Moller at 9:30 PM ET as a heavy favorite, and he carries real history into this qualifying campaign. Last year he became the first man from Hong Kong to win a Grand Slam singles match in the Open era, defeating Aleksandar Kovacevic in the first round before reaching the third round.

Current form: Wong sits at a career-high ranking of No. 109, reached in May of this year, and enters on the back of a Challenger title in Jiujiang earlier this season. Momentum and course history both point in his favor.

Mackenzie McDonald: The Grand Slam Veteran

McDonald enters as a clear favorite in his qualifying opener, and unlike most of the field, he has genuine Grand Slam pedigree to lean on. His career-high ranking of No. 37 came with a run to the Australian Open fourth round.

Current form: Now ranked No. 123 after a mixed 2025-26 stretch, McDonald remains a tricky out at this level given his experience at ATP Tour level, even as he looks to rebuild after slipping outside the top 100.

Elias Ymer: The Grinder Who Knows the Route

Ymer is one of the most experienced qualifying campaigners in the field, and it shows in his odds today. He proved just months ago that he has the game to navigate three rounds under pressure, coming through qualifying at the 2026 Australian Open by beating Alex Bolt, Elmer Moller, and Coleman Wong in succession before falling in the first round proper.

Current form: Ymer’s ranking has fluctuated outside the top 200 in recent seasons, but his ability to win three matches in a row when it matters, demonstrated again in Melbourne this January, makes him a live threat regardless of where his ranking sits on paper.

Toby Samuel: The In-Form Climber

Samuel enters as a strong favorite off the back of one of the hottest streaks in the qualifying field. He has won back-to-back Challenger titles on the Crete circuit this year and captured the Soma Bay Open title in late 2025, pushing his ranking to a career-high.

Current form: At a career-high No. 159, Samuel’s recent title run gives him as much momentum as almost anyone in the draw heading into today’s matches.

Mark Lajal: The Biggest Favorite on the Sheet

Lajal carries the shortest odds of any player across both screenshots, a reflection of how much he’s outgrown this level of competition on paper. The Estonian No. 1 became the first player from his country to win a Challenger title before turning 21.

Current form: Lajal’s ranking sits around No. 158 after reaching a career-high of No. 145 last September, and while his 2026 results have been inconsistent, today’s matchup makes him one of the safest picks on the board.

Why Qualifying Deserves Attention

Sixteen men will convert this week’s matches into a place in the main draw, and history shows that qualifiers are far from ceremonial participants once the tournament proper begins. Recent US Open editions have seen qualifiers push deep into the second week, and some of the sport’s current top players climbed through exactly this route earlier in their careers. Round 1 results this week won’t make headlines outside the sport, but they’re shaping who shows up in the main draw storylines everyone will be talking about by next Monday.