Who will win the Shanghai Masters 2026 now? Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Ben Shelton and defending champion Vacherot are all out, and top seed Zverev looks like the main favorite among the players left. Still, the round of 16 is full of dangerous opponents. This page gives you all eight confirmed matches, predictions and the key facts behind each pick.

What changed in the Shanghai Masters 2026 draw

• Bergs, ranked 39th, beat second seed Alcaraz 7-5, 7-6(4), converting his first match point with his ninth ace.
• Alcaraz came to Shanghai after winning the Tokyo title, his first trophy since returning from injury.
• Paul, the 15th seed, knocked out defending champion Vacherot 6-4, 6-2. He won 74% of his first serve points and converted four of six break points.
• Hurkacz beat Djokovic 6-4, 6-3 in the second round and Zhou Yi in the third round.
• Davidovich Fokina saved a match point against Tiafoe, his first top 10 win of the season.
• Gea, 21, beat Shelton for his first win over a top 10 player. It is his first Masters 1000 main draw.
• Van de Zandschulp upset eighth seed Fils 7-5, 6-4.
• No Chinese player is left in the draw after Zhou Yi lost to Hurkacz.

Zverev vs Bublik prediction

Zverev reached the round of 16 with his 60th tour level win of 2026. That match was not clean. He let two match points slip in the second set tiebreak before closing out the third set.

Bublik hit 16 aces across the last two sets against Nakashima. His serve can turn any set into a tiebreak.

Prediction: Zverev. He is the top seed and has the steadier game, but expect at least one tight set.

Hurkacz vs Davidovich Fokina prediction

This is one of the closest matches of the round. Hurkacz won this title in 2023 and has played well in Shanghai, including the win over Djokovic. Davidovich Fokina beat him in the Chengdu final recently and just won a nearly three hour match against Tiafoe.

Prediction: Davidovich Fokina. The recent head to head and his confidence give him a small edge, though Hurkacz’s Shanghai record makes this a real coin flip.

Auger-Aliassime vs Ruud prediction

Auger-Aliassime, the fourth seed, hit seven aces and held 12 of 13 service games against Carreno Busta. Ruud beat Tien in a rare win against a top 20 player on hard courts.

Prediction: Auger-Aliassime. On a fast surface his serve is the biggest weapon in this matchup.

Medvedev vs Tsitsipas prediction

Medvedev, the 2019 champion, played his first match since being defaulted from the China Open semifinal in the second round, then beat Svrcina comfortably. He hit 21 aces against Struff.

Tsitsipas came back from a set down to beat Fritz and is playing with confidence.

Prediction: Medvedev. His level on this surface has been higher so far.

Jodar vs Van de Zandschulp prediction

Jodar, 20, earned his 40th win of his debut season against Lehecka. He is the youngest man to reach the fourth round at five straight Masters 1000 events since Djokovic in 2007.

Van de Zandschulp is playing well after beating Fils, but Jodar has been more consistent against top opponents.

Prediction: Jodar.

Bergs vs Paul prediction

Bergs produced the biggest win of his career against Alcaraz, after beating Buse 6-0, 6-3 in the previous round. The danger now is a letdown after such a result.

Paul was clean against Vacherot, serving well and breaking often. He has never won this tournament, and his best result here is the round of 16, so a win would also be a milestone for him.

Prediction: Paul. He is the higher ranked player and has played a more controlled tournament, though Bergs has momentum.

De Minaur vs Khachanov prediction

De Minaur, the ninth seed, reached the round of 16 after a walkover in the second round and a straight sets win over qualifier Sakamoto. Khachanov had a harder path. He needed three tiebreak sets to beat Fery before beating Mannarino easily.

The head to head is level at 2-2, and this will be their fifth meeting.

Prediction: De Minaur. He is fresher and the higher seed, but the head to head says this should be close.

Gea vs Mensik prediction

Gea has won three matches in his first Masters 1000 main draw, beating Faria, Humbert and Shelton. Mensik, the 13th seed and winner of the Auckland title this year, won 85% of his first serve points against Cerundolo.

Prediction: Mensik. His serve and experience at this level give him the edge, but Gea has nothing to lose and is on a roll.